The US and Russia have agreed to launch what amounts to a joint air
campaign against the two main extreme Islamist groups in Syria. If the
ceasefire that starts at sunset tonight holds for seven consecutive days
and the UN is able to deliver aid to besieged people in Aleppo, then
the US and Russia will establish "a joint implementation center" that
will organize joint military targeting by American and Russian aircraft
directed against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaida
which has re labelled itself — with al-Qaida publicly assenting to a
break with its affiliate — as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
For the US and Russia to plan and implement what may be a lengthy air
campaign in Syria is perhaps the most striking aspect of the deal
announced in Geneva early on Saturday morning. If the plan goes ahead,
it goes a long way towards elevating Russia back to the status of a
superpower — at least in the Middle East — that it lost with fall of the
Soviet Union in 1991. Military partnership with the US, though in
pursuit of the single objective of attacking ISIS and al-Nusra, is a
powerful incentive for Moscow to insist that the Syrian air force stop
combat missions over all opposition areas, aside from those held by
ISIS.
The US and Russian aim is combat both "terrorist" movements, but it is
difficult to see how the campaign will work. The plan is for moderate
anti-Assad armed groups to decouple themselves from al-Nusra, which will
then be targeted by air strikes. But, it is generally agreed that such
moderate groups are thin on the ground in Syria and those that turn
against their former allies in al-Nusra too abruptly may not live long
enough to enjoy the protection of a US-Russian air umbrella. Nusra is
not only well armed, organised and present in many parts of Syria, but
it enjoys substantial political support from the Sunni Arab population.
It will not be easy to weaken or eliminate.
There is a mysterious element in the US-Russian air campaign. Air
strikes by both countries have been effective against ISIS and al-Nusra,
but they require ground troops to call in the air attacks against
identifiable targets. For all their fanaticism, the extreme jihadis have
not been able to withstand this type of bombardment and have suffered
heavy casualties whenever they tried to do so, such as during the
four-and-half month long siege of the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani in
2014/15 and in Ramadi and Fallujah. But in the new phase of the air war
in Syria it is not clear who is going to provide the ground troops to
cooperate with the massive air power overhead and occupy territory from
which ISIS has been driven.
ISIS has become weaker over the past year. It won its last big victories
in capturing Palmyra in Syria and Ramadi in Iraq in May 2015, and has
since lost them both. More recently, it was drive out of Fallujah, which
it had held for two-and-a-half years, by the Iraqi army backed by
US-led air strikes. Last month, it lost its access to the outside world
when the Turkish army sealed off the last strip of the Syrian-Turkish
border open to it. But, though ISIS is badly battered, it has not yet
been decisively defeated. It has thousands of experienced fighters and
can impact on the political agenda of the world by its terrorist attacks
abroad.
ISIS, despite its territorial losses in Syria, still holds Raqqa and a
large part of the Euphrates valley. But the heart of the movement has
always been in Iraq. It was its capture of Mosul in the summer of 2014
that enabled it to declare a caliphate and become a demonic new player
on the world stage. Kurdish and Iraqi army forces are now gearing up for
an attempt to recapture Mosul, by far the biggest population center
still held by ISIS. If the movement cannot hold the city, then it
overall power and influence in Syria and Iraq will be much reduced.
To assess the current mood in Mosul and discover how ISIS is responding
to the threat of attack, The Independent interviewed by email a local
observer in the city, whose pseudonym is Hammad Abu Jasim. Given that
ISIS had just executed a woman and her daughter for talking by mobile
phone from a high building in Mosul to relatives in Erbil, his
discretion about his identity is understandable. It is worth quoting Abu
Jasim at some length to give the flavour of what may the last days of
ISIS in Mosul.
There are signs of ISIS moving its personnel within Mosul and out of the
city. Abu Jasim says, "I saw a long queue of big vehicles carrying away
the furniture, equipment and facilities of Mosul University colleges to
other parts of the city and outside it. Daesh [ISIS] intends to empty
the public institutions in Mosul. In addition, it has launched a
campaign against internet cafes in the last two days, and closed them if
the owners have relatives outside Mosul."
These are signs of nervousness by ISIS. It is closing many of its
military and security bases, presumably suspecting that their function
is well known and they will be targeted by US-led air strikes. But more
significant are signs that the financial resources of ISIS are much
reduced. Abu Jasim reports that "until last week, the families of ISIS
militants killed in the fighting were still receiving lump sums and
salaries, but last week none were given. The families were told that
their numbers were increasing and the caliphate's resources decreasing,
so they had to support it at this critical time."
Several ISIS fighters manning checkpoints have been shot by snipers,
though the identity of their killers is unknown. Abu Jassim says that he
knew one of those who was shot at midday near his house. Another
officer was found dead in his office, leading to many civilians being
arrested and ISIS militants moved to more secure neighborhoods defended
by dozens of concrete checkpoints and barriers. Some locals,
particularly traders who worked with ISIS, are being given weapons,
though Ahu Jasim says they are not loyal to ISIS whom they secretly
betray. But up to the end, ISIS is enforcing its regulations with savage
punishments. He says that "last week I witnesses a public whipping of
people who were caught watching satellite television". ISIS is
evidently, taking such steps as it can to meet the coming assault on
Mosul, but there are limits to what it can do against enemies enjoying
overwhelming military superiority.
Source>> TimesofIndia
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