India's 'Tibet Card' Strengthened Amid Rising Tensions with China

A recent visit by American lawmakers to the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala, India, has reignited discussions about India's "Tibet card" and its growing significance in the face of escalating tensions with China.

This rare diplomatic move, backed by India and met with swift condemnation from China, highlights a calculated shift in India's approach towards its neighboring superpower.

A Convergence of Interests​

The visit, involving a delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, was seen as a clear message to China from the United States, Tibetans in exile, and India. China's embassy in India promptly responded, denouncing the visit and the Dalai Lama's "anti-China separatist nature."

The Dalai Lama, who fled Tibet in 1959 following a failed uprising against Chinese rule, has been a central figure in the Tibetan independence movement. His presence in India, and the support he receives, has long been a source of contention between India and China.

Shifting Dynamics in India-China Relations​

Historically, India has tread carefully around issues like Tibet and Taiwan to avoid provoking China. However, the 2020 border clashes in Ladakh marked a turning point.

Since then, India has adopted a more assertive stance, openly engaging with Tibetan leaders, facilitating the Dalai Lama's visits to sensitive border areas, and even referring to the border as the "India-Tibet border."

The Modi government has also taken several economic measures to counter China's influence, including banning Chinese apps and restricting investments from Chinese companies.

This shift reflects a growing recognition in India that respecting China's sensitivities hasn't been reciprocated, leading to a reassessment of its foreign policy approach.

The Tibet Card: A Calculated Risk​

Experts suggest that India's recent actions, including the American lawmakers' visit to the Dalai Lama, are part of a calculated strategy to signal to China that its concerns will not be unilaterally accommodated. By leveraging the Tibet issue, India aims to create friction and challenge China's narrative, potentially gaining leverage in the future.

However, this approach is not without risks. China holds considerable economic and military power, and its response to India's actions could escalate tensions further. India's strategy, therefore, seems to be one of calculated risk-taking, balancing assertiveness with caution.

The US Factor​

The United States' involvement in this diplomatic dance adds another layer of complexity. Their increased focus on Tibet and perceived existential clash with China align with India's interests, leading to greater convergence on the Tibet issue.

This partnership, while potentially beneficial for both countries, has also raised concerns about its longevity and the potential for shifting alliances in the future.

Looking Ahead​

The future of India's Tibet card remains uncertain. While some argue that it holds limited leverage, others believe that keeping the issue alive could yield unexpected results in the long run.

What's clear is that India's approach towards China is evolving, marked by a growing willingness to push back against perceived aggression and assert its own interests. The Tibetan issue is likely to remain a key point of contention in this evolving geopolitical landscape.